“It’s tough to make predictions, especially about the future.” — Yogi Berra
THIS MONTH’S TOPIC: PROJECTIONS AND FORECASTS.
Think about planning your trip south this coming fall. What goes into it? Maybe you consider traffic around the usual bottlenecks, whether you’ll time your stops to include a Buc-ee’s (purely for the brisket sandwich, of course), or if it’s going to be more Motel 6 or Ritz-Carlton this year—depending on how the market treated you over the summer. You might even factor in the weather… or whether you’ll make that first tee time without needing a “warm-up” day to recover from the drive.
In reality, you’re building a plan based on what you know about what lies ahead. In other words, you’re using forecasts to project your travel time and arrival in Fort Myers—give or take a few construction zones and one inexplicably long stop at Buc-ee’s.
The same concept applies in accounting and financial planning.
Accountants often prepare “forward-looking” financial statements, especially when leadership is considering new projects. While forecasts and projections both look to the future, they serve different purposes. A forecast represents management’s best estimate based on current conditions and expected changes. A projection, on the other hand, illustrates what might happen under a specific set of assumptions—a “what if” scenario… like what if gas prices behave, traffic cooperates, and you actually get here ahead of schedule. (We can dream.)
As the saying goes:
“Economists have predicted six of the last two recessions.” — Unknown
Forecasts and projections are frequently misunderstood. Because both rely on assumptions, actual results will almost always differ. That doesn’t make them wrong—it makes them useful. They are tools for decision-making, built on the best information available at the time the decision is made.
After all, even the best-planned trip can be derailed by an accident on I-75 that turns a smooth drive into an extended tour of Atlanta traffic—or a “quick lunch stop” that somehow lasts two hours.
So why all this talk about forward-looking financials?
Because the Club has begun work on a strategic plan.
A newly-formed Strategic Planning Committee will guide the community through a process focused on the future—asking what members want the Club to become, and how it should evolve. Are there new amenities we’d like to see? Expanded pickleball courts? A bigger outdoor dining area? (Preferably one where you can still hear your tablemates over the laughter.) Are there structural considerations, such as governance or bylaws, that should be revisited?
An essential part of that process is understanding the financial implications of the options on the table. For example, we might all enjoy the idea of a 10-acre water park complete with slides and play areas—but what would it cost? And how would it affect future income, expenses, and cash flow? More importantly, would we actually use it… or just talk about how nice it would be while sitting comfortably by the pool? And, of course…what would be the dress code?
That’s where forecasts and projections come in. They help quantify the possibilities—outlining potential investments, revenues, and expenses—so the Board and membership can make informed, thoughtful decisions about the Club’s future.
So, as you hear about new ideas and possibilities, take a moment to look at the forecasts and projections behind them. They’re not perfect—but they’re the best tools we have to make smart decisions together.
And about predictions: I have this incredible ability to predict what’s inside a wrapped present.
It’s a gift.
Smile, and have a great summer!
Should you have ideas for topics you’d like to see covered in Between the Numbers for 2026–27, feel free to email me at [email protected].
